According to County Business Patterns, in 2010, US establishments in NAICS 323117 had an annual payroll of $1.1 billion. The payroll declined during the first half of the 2010s, at least in current dollars, but started to rise again, ending the decade at $993 million in 2019. However, adjusting for inflation, the payroll wages fell by -25% over the decade. In the macro news: what’s going on with the real estate market?
We are continuing our examination of the annual payroll in the printing industry.
In 2010, book printing establishments in the United States had an annual payroll of $1.1 billion. Payrolls fell during the first half of the 2010s, at least in current dollars, but increased slightly at the end of the decade, ending the 2010s at $993 million in 2019. , dollars not pegged to l ‘inflation. If we were to adjust for inflation, the 2010 payroll would equal $1.3 billion in 2019, so we’re essentially looking at an overall -25% drop in payroll over the decade. This is likely almost entirely due to industry consolidation or the diversification of book printers into general commercial printing or other NAICS categories, as establishments and employees also fell by 25%.
Coming up in this dataset:
- 32312 (Print support activities, i.e. prepress and postpress services)
This data and overall year-over-year trends, like other demographic data, can be used not only for business planning and forecasting, but also for allocating sales and marketing resources.
This macro instant
The latest edition of Calculated Risk’s “State of the Real Estate Market” newsletter provides insight into what has been a turbulent market. If you’ve spoken to a real estate agent recently, you know that home sales have started to decline as rising mortgage rates have started to take hold. From a low of less than 3% in July 2021, 30-year mortgage rates have climbed and have only recently stabilized around 5.5%. As a result, according to the NAR, existing home sales were at “a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April. Year-on-year, sales fell 5.9% (5.96 million in April 2021). And sales of new single-family homes in April 2022, according to the Census Bureau, “were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000… That’s 16.6% below March’s revised rate of 709,000 and 26, 9% below April 2021 estimate of 809,000.”
If you’ve bought and/or sold a home in the last couple of years, you know that home prices were a bit crazy. The price reductions have started to be felt, although this is a new trend, it is not yet showing in the data.
We need to be patient as we wait to see the impact on house prices from slowing sales due to the significant data lags. Meanwhile, Altos Research CEO Mike Simonsen noted this week that “price cuts” are the story right now.
Meanwhile, home inventory is very low.
The NAR said the inventory was down 10.4% year-over-year in April. Since then, other sources, such as Altos Research and Realtor.com, indicate that active inventory increased year-over-year in May. I expect local market reports to show a year-over-year inventory increase in May as well.
As for the construction site:
For new homes, there are 5.9 months of homes under construction – well above the normal level. This high level of housing under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is close to the record set in 1980. However, there are still very few completed homes for sale.
And for housing starts, there’s a record 1.641 million units under construction. It eclipses the previous record of 1.628 million units under construction (mainly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation).
So what’s going on in real estate? Expect continued price reductions (good news if you’re looking to buy, not so good news if you’re looking to sell), more inventory, and a continued slowdown in sales. Further impacts on real estate will also depend on whether the Fed continues to hike interest rates if inflation remains high.